Who will win Eurovision 2019?

Our predictions based on what
makes a perfect song

We analysed which factors appear in winning performances to understand what goes into the ideal Eurovision Song Contest combination

Love it or hate it (or pretend to hate it but secretly love it) there’s no denying that Eurovision has produced some memorable acts over the years. From the legendary introduction of Sweden’s ABBA in 1974 to the groundbreaking victory of Austria’s Conchita Wurst in 2014, the competition is rife with chart-toppers and jaw-droppers alike.

It’s the element of surprise and seemingly random results that make the competition so captivating – which is why we decided to try to understand which elements need to come together to create a winning performance.

We analysed data from 2012 onwards, looking at aspects such as gender, dance-ability, and language to predict who will be this year’s winner. Read on to learn more about what goes into an award-worthy Eurovision performance and find out which of this year’s acts fit the bill.

Contents

The act most likely to
win Eurovision 2019

According to our data (and the bookies) the Netherlands’ Duncan Laurence is the favourite for Eurovision 2019. The Dutch singer-songwriter was a contender in The Voice of Holland in 2014 and made it through to the semi-finals.

Set to perform his original song, “Arcade”, Laurence fits most of the criteria of what our research indicates is the ‘perfect’ Eurovision song:

The Perfect Eurovision Song

Sex Male
Group/Solo Solo
BPM 100-109
Danceability 70-79
Energy 40-49
Loudness -9
Valance 40-49
Speechiness 5-9
Duncan Laurence - Arcade

You’ll find the full list of predictions at the end of this article – but first, which elements are most likely to amount to a winning performance?

The sound of a winner

When choosing a language to perform in, Eurovision has one of the most diverse collections out of any competition – and it doesn’t even necessarily need to be a real dialect. Belgian group Urban Trad came second in 2003 with their song “Sanomi,” which was written in an imaginary language and earned them 165 points.

The majority of acts choose to sing in English, or English and a mix of their native tongue. However, there’s always an element of unpredictability in terms of what people prefer to listen to – for example, singing in Serbian has historically scored higher than Italian.

Average position and number of entries

Pinch to zoom!

Average Position

Moving to the music

Anyone who watches Eurovision knows that it’s not just about the songs – in fact, some of the most celebrated (or commiserated) Eurovision moments have involved the dance and choreography element.

The most memorable
Eurovision dance
moments

One of the dance highlights is Great Britain’s 1981 entry, when Bucks Fizz sang “Making Your Mind Up” and shocked audiences halfway through the performance.

Bucks Fizz - Making Your Mind Up

Appropriately synched with the lyrics “And try to look as if you don’t care less/But if you want to see some more…” the male members of the group reached over and tore off the female member’s skirts, revealing matching miniskirts (and a whole lot of leg!). Some loved it and others were appalled – making it a true Eurovision-worthy gimmick.

Another groundbreaking Eurovision dance moment happened in 1994, when the competition was held in Dublin. During the scheduled 7-minute TV interval Riverdance made its debut on the world stage, reaching an audience of 300 million. Viewers near and far were blown away by the performance, which featured Irish dancing champions Jean Butler and Michael Flatley and the vocal ensemble Anúna.

Costume choices for
men and women

White embellished gown
Dami Im, representing Australia

When it comes to costume choices, our research revealed that female artists tend to take the opportunity to be expressive with their clothing, often opting for white, embellished gowns. Men seem to go for a more understated look, with classic black suits as the most popular male costume.

The star of the show

Having a great song and a meticulous performance on the night is extremely important – but the Eurovision winner must also be able to win audiences (and voters) over with their charm and star quality.

How does gender
factor in?

After analysing trends of past winners, it seems that men place slightly higher than women – but not by much.

The highest points position of all time is held by a man – Portugal’s Salvador Sobral, earned 758 points in the 2017 competition for “Amar Pelos Dois” (or “Love for Both of Us”), which was written and produced by his sister, Luísa Sobral.

Solo or group?

It seems that going it alone allows for a better chance of winning – solo acts tend to get a better position, compared to groups. There have been more solo participants over the years, compared to multi-performer acts, and perhaps unsurprisingly more solo act winners.

White embellished gown
Samra, representing Azerbaijan

For the groups that do take a shot at it, bigger seems to be better – but if you can’t go big, go small. Those who have six members (the maximum number allowed) tend to do best, followed by duos and then groups of three.

The numbers show that it’s more common to enter as a mixed gender group (33 entries since 2012), followed by all male groups (29 entries since 2012), and all female (7 entries since 2012) groups. However, all female groups score better, followed by mixed and all male groups respectively.

When it comes to deciding whether or not to commit to a group or try going solo, it seems men and women have different luck. Female groups tend to do better than female solo artist, whereas male solo artists have the edge over male groups.

There’s no ignoring
the politics

One of people’s biggest complaints (or favourite aspects, depending on who you ask) of the Eurovision Song Contest is the voting pattern. Call it a conspiracy theory, but certain countries do seem to show allegiances, regardless of the quality of the performance.

The UK has a close ally in Ireland, which has awarded the UK the most points since 2012, followed by Australia and Malta. However, the UK doesn’t seem to return the favor to its neighbour, having given the most of its points to Sweden and Bulgaria (tied) followed by Lithuania and Australia.

There’s a similar pattern going on between Armenia and France – France has received the most points from Armenia, followed by Israel and Belgium. However, France has chosen a different favourite – it has awarded the most points to Italy, followed by Sweden and Armenia.

In terms of having an ear for a winner, Spain, The Netherlands, and Belgium are the best predictors to date – they are the countries that are most likely to award their points to the eventual winner each year.

It doesn’t have to end
after Eurovision

Eurovision has produced many one-hit wonders (and blunders) but, as ABBA famously showed us, the competition is only the beginning for some.

We looked at the way that acts have ranked across YouTube and Spotify, anaylsing how many views and plays each track has received across the platforms.

Based on the number of people who are tuning in, it seems you don’t need a winning song to become the most popular (though it does help).

The most popular
Eurovision songs

Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes

We looked at the acts that placed in the top three over the last five years, combining stats from YouTube and Spotify. The 2015 winner, Sweden’s Måns Zelmerlöw, comes out on top with his winning song “Heroes”, but the next three most popular songs all placed either second or third in the actual competition.

There’s also quite a difference in terms of what people want to watch, compared to what they want to listen to. Most notably, the Russian winner Sergey is second for most YouTube views but tenth for Spotify plays.

How are 2018’s entries
doing now?

When comparing success on the big night to how popular certain songs are today, there’s a clear shift in position among last year’s entries.

Cyprus’ Eleni Foureira placed second in Eurovision 2018 but holds the most views and plays across YouTube and Spotify.

However, the real success stories are Spain (placed 23) and Finland (placed 25), which have climbed to the 7th and 12th most popular post-Eurovision tracks.

Albania (placed 11), Estonia (placed 8), and Moldova (placed 10) haven’t fared as well. Each country secured an above-average result, but slipped to the bottom of the popularity table over the course of the year.

Who will win
Eurovision 2019?

So, with all this in mind, who will come out on top in the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest?

Of course, there’s no real way to know – especially with Eurovision, which is famous for throwing something unexpected into the mix that shatters all previous expectations.

However, based on the past winners and the factors that seem to shape a successful song, we’ve outlined our predictions below:

Predicted Order Country Artist Song Language BPM Energy Danceability Loudness Valence Length Acousticness Speechiness Popularity
1 Netherlands Duncan Laurence Arcade English 72 33 45 -13 27 184 82 4 77
2 Italy Mahmood Soldi Italian (Arabic) 95 59 73 -10 35 195 4 5 80
3 Sweden John Lundvik Too Late for Love English 104 75 40 -4 42 178 20 7 78
4 Hungary Pápai Joci Az én apám Hungarian 96 44 70 -8 36 182 77 4 55
5 Austria PAENDA Limits English 131 36 46 -12 18 205 81 6 51
6 North Macedonia Tamara Todevska Proud English 92 42 36 -6 28 180 82 3 52
7 Norway KEiiNO Spirit in the Sky English (Sami) 122 75 61 -6 36 185 14 6 70
8 Portugal Conan Osíris Telemóveis Portuguese 123 37 71 -12 24 186 62 6 53
9 Israel Kobi Marimi Home English 110 31 47 -9 44 178 88 4 50
10 Switzerland Luca Hänni She Got Me English 97 76 67 -6 47 181 5 5 66
11 Latvia Carousel That Night English 93 46 67 -10 51 182 68 4 48
12 Cyprus Tamta Replay English 102 68 71 -5 50 174 5 7 64
13 Denmark Leonora Love Is Forever English/French (German/Danish) 136 42 73 -5 79 181 58 3 55
14 Azerbaijan Chingiz Truth English 101 63 63 -7 73 209 5 4 55
15 Slovenia Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl Sebi Slovene 108 65 78 -7 74 199 18 4 55
16 Romania Ester Peony On a Sunday English 72 49 35 -6 33 185 13 6 52
17 United Kingdom Michael Rice Bigger than Us English 82 55 52 -8 57 178 1 3 57
18 Australia Kate Miller-Heidke Zero Gravity English 132 54 46 -2 26 177 57 4 56
19 Croatia Roko Blažević The Dream English/Croatian 114 56 51 -8 34 180 57 3 51
20 Belgium Eliot Wake Up English 145 60 60 -9 19 179 38 3 58
21 Iceland Hatari Hatrið mun sigra Icelandic 110 67 57 -10 48 179 0 8 60
22 Estonia Victor Crone Storm English 128 59 62 -5 29 186 5 3 59
23 Czech Republic Lake Malawi Friend of a Friend English 106 74 70 -5 41 173 27 6 56
24 Spain Miki Núñez La venda Spanish 148 74 60 -7 68 184 4 4 65
25 Germany S!sters Sister English 142 45 56 -9 22 180 39 4 52
26 Belarus Zena Like It English 105 87 69 -4 42 181 38 6 52
27 Armenia Srbuk Walking Out English 130 66 61 -5 39 177 17 4 54
28 Ireland Sarah McTernan 22 English 125 45 71 -9 67 173 12 5 50
29 Albania Jonida Maliqi Ktheju tokës Albanian 115 61 53 -5 60 194 2 4 49
30 Montenegro D-mol Heaven English 92 73 53 -8 47 175 21 5 46
31 Poland Tulia Fire of Love (Pali się) Polish 96 78 59 -4 78 166 2 3 53
32 Finland Darude Look Away English 126 89 50 -4 48 180 1 5 56
33 Moldova Anna Odobescu Stay English 156 62 42 -5 24 181 29 3 51
34 Serbia Nevena Bozovic Kruna (Круна) Serbian (English) 158 48 20 -6 16 187 21 3 50
35 San Marino Serhat Say Na Na Na English (Turkish) 118 92 68 -5 74 179 0 8 53
36 Greece Katerine Duska Better Love English 176 69 37 -5 35 181 1 6 59
37 Russia Sergey Lazarev Scream English 184 52 33 -7 26 179 9 4 53
38 France Bilal Hassani Roi French/English 140 66 55 -7 63 177 22 4 46
39 Lithuania Jurijus Run with the Lions English 158 70 57 -7 40 181 4 4 46

Do you agree? Connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram to let us know who you think will win Eurovision 2019!